Increasing chatter around Russian supply lines and the level of resources it has available have repeatedly brought up the topic of how long the Kremlin will be able to maintain the costly and resource-hungry war in Ukraine as the conflict turns into a gruelling war of attrition that’s been compared to that of WW1.
Russia has turned to Iran for Shaheed suicide drones, it’s allegedly received artillery shells from North Korea, and there is increasing concern that China could be considering supplying arms to the Kremlin.
Today, the military intelligence service of Lithuania has told reporters that it estimates Russia has the ability and resources to maintain the ongoing war in Ukraine at the intensity it is currently at for at least two more years.
In a meeting with reporters, Lithuanian military intelligence chief Elegijus Paulavicius said, “Russia had been accumulating weapons and equipment over the long years of the Cold War. We estimate that its resources would last for another two years of a war of the same intensity as today. Russia has a large amount of weaponry stored in its reserves, which would allow them to cause enormous damage and increase the costs of restoration”.
The assessment released by the Lithuanian military intelligence service, as part of their annual report alongside their civilian intelligence counterparts, is based on a scenario where Russia is left to fight the war single-handed in terms of supplies and receives no military aid from foreign states.
In addition, the report also claimed that the notorious mass mobilization enforced by the Kremlin in 2022 revealed that alleged widespread support for the ongoing war in Ukraine is “not as big as the regime’s propaganda tried to make it seem.”
The report added, “Dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies is currently taking a passive form: mostly avoiding mobilization, complaining about poor provision and disarray in the army”, the document said.
In addition, the Lithuanian intelligence report shed light on the impact that battlefield losses, increased mobilization, and a rapid decline in Russia’s economy could have a serious negative impact on the stability of Putin’s leadership.
Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO. The former-Soviet Baltic country has been a significant supporter of Ukraine following the Russian invasion, which began in February last year.